By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
What you see is what you get!
1 Normal seasonal cycle – just fewer transactions
2 Seasonal ebbs and flow within the yearly housing cycle
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HOUSING
FORECAST
By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
3 Restriction of supply will continue throughout 2024+
4 Sellers will move for the same reasons in 2024
Starting in 2024, the number of new resale listings started to increase compared to the same time last
year. This is the leading indicator that more home buyers are entering the market, as many home buyers need to sell their current home before purchasing their next property.
4 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Great Recession)
6 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization
8 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Dot-com Bubble)
6 Years of Growth
4 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Great Recession)
6 Years of Growth
2 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization
2 Years of Hyper-Growth (Covid Housing Economic Stimulus)
Restart: 3 Years of Adjustment/Market Stabilization (Recession)
Years of Growth
6 Phases of the Yearly Housing Cycle™
Represents Number of New Resale Listings by Month | Typical yearly pattern of new resale listings
January-February: New Year Kickoff
Low point of unsold inventory
Buyers come back into the market in
bigger numbers after holidays
Low number of new resale listings
Sales Activity Intensity™ increases two levels
March-April: Spring Market
As more resale listings come on the market,
intensity lowers one level
May-June: Pre-Summer Market
Highest number of new resale listings and
homes going under contract
Scale: Sales Activity Intensity™
KING COUNTY
2025
Housing
forecast
Big Comeback Year for the Housing Market
More resale listings, more homes going under contract
Leading Indicator
Residential real estate follows a predictable pattern
10-Year Housing Cycle
HISTORICAL 10-YEAR CYCLES
YEAR 1: 2022
YEAR 2 AND 3: 2023-2024
2025 AND BEYOND
An adjustment year
The market has stabilized
The housing market
will expand as the
U.S. economy expands
CURRENT 10-YEAR CYCLE
1980-1983
1984-1989
1990-1991
1992-1999
2000-2001
2002-2007
2008-2011
2012-2017
2018-2019
2020-2021
2022-2024
2025+++
July-August: Summer Market
Lowers another level of intensity, more new
resale listings and unsold inventory
September-October: Fall Market
High point of unsold inventory
Best selection of new resale listings until next March
November-December: Winter Market
Winter cleanup, few new resale listings
Percentage of listings under contract (pending) first 30 days
Sales Activity Intensity™ is the percentage of new resale listings that go under contract within
the first 30 days on the market. High intensity creates price support and home price appreciation.
In today’s market, the Sales Activity Intensity™ is highest in the mid-price ranges.
Overall: Frenzy/Extreme Frenzy Sales Activity Intensity™
Luxury Market: Surge/Frenzy Sales Activity Intensity™ close to job centers
forecast after january 1, 2025 - multiple offer housing market
Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS
Dr. Yun forecasts that home mortgage interest rates will be in the 6% range with sales activity increasing
10% per year for the next two years. At that time, existing home transactions will be back to historical normal levels.
2025 National Sales Forecast
Seller Motivation Scale
Reasons for those needing to sell include:
1 Job transfer
2 Vacant home
3 Estate
4 Household formation change
5 Financial reasons
6 Health
Reasons for those wanting to sell (many with current, large home equity) include:
1 Reposition locally, downsize/upsize
2 Closer to family and friends
3 Purchase in lifestyle, destination market
4 Retirement
It’s okay to buy/sell within the same market timing.
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Key Factors for Today’s Housing Market
1 Job Growth: Close to job centers
2 Home Mortgage Interest Rates: Forecasted to be in the 6% range in 2025
3 Tight Housing Supply: Close to job centers
4 Energy Costs: Anticipated to lower
5 Luxury Housing Market: U.S. economy, job growth, and wealth effects drive the luxury market
6 Lifestyle/Destination Communities: As the major metro areas heat up on the west coast, transactions
spread hroughout the Northwest
Remember: If any of your family or friends are thinking of moving and have any questions
or need guidance, please let me know.
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